Can't be much - could also be a weak battery, loose plug, stripped plug threads, plug insulated from the head, spark plug gap that's too wide, slightly damaged wiring harness, loose connector pin or mixed-up timing on the coil packs...
I'm just guessing here based on what I know about electrical theory. Even though the plug sparked outside of the head, when it's in the high compression of the motor the low voltage from a damaged coil driver transistor can't be stepped up enough to jump the gap.